Avoiding the Retirement Bubble

Where Will You Be in 30 Years?

I am 64 years old. When I was 34, if you had given me as much time as I wanted and asked me to prepare a lifestyle and financial plan for the next 30 years of my life, I would have thought you were nuts. I was pretty busy in 1979, but if I had time with nothing to do, I suppose I might have tried. If you had been foolish enough to pay me for my time, I probably woud have done it. The only thing I feel confident in saying now is that, regardless of what I had written down or what my spreadsheet said, I would have been wrong, very wrong.

If I had tried at 44 and only had to plan twenty years, I would have been very wrong. If I had tried at 54 and only had to plan ten years, I would have been very wrong. I do not care what "sophisticated software" I had available at the time or what the "planning gurus" suggested, I would have been very wrong.

Now I will tell you what I have done. At age 40, I decided that I should think ahead beyond a year or two and begin thinking in longer terms. I chose five years. I knew I had no chance of getting it right for ten or more years and I knew the odds were against me for even a five-year plan, but I went ahead and did it. I have repeated that exercise at age 45, 50, 55, and 60. Not one of these "five-year plans" has proven correct and I expected that, but I do it because it gives me a reason to sit down and consider my future. I have found that much to be useful. I will do it again next year when I'm 65. Whatever I come up with will be wrong, but it will be a good exercise and it will help me keep a forward-looking perspective beyond the more or less immediate future. It is a useful exercise, but it is a lousy way to plan your life if you think you must actually implement the plan.

During the five years, I think back on the latest plan from time to time. Without exception, I find that I am moving in a direction different from that planned, sometimes within a month after finishing the plan, sometimes two or three years. I think through what has happened, searching for the reasons I changed course. With very, very rare exception, I changed because some factor I did not control, but which directly affected me, changed, so I had to change with it. That's fine. It doesn't bother me at all. Flexibility is critical to making it through life with any shot at success. But it taught me what common sense told me. I cannot predict the future and I must be prepared to make a major change at any time. It is no different for any other human, including you.

Yes, I am 64. Do you think that I think for a single moment that I can plan the next 30 years of my life accurately? The next 20? The next 10? Hell, I can't even do the next five!

But I had one thing going for me when I was 34 that is still going for me at 64. As long as I am earning income from active employment, whether I work for someone else or am self-employed, I have some small control over the income aspect of future planning. I can look for another job. I can start a new business. I can work for a promotion in my current job. I can train for another field. But throughout all of this, I am also adding another line or two or three or more to my work resume, literally my "curriculum vitae", my "course of life".

Traditional retirement includes giving up that earned income and, with it, giving up some flexibility. I know from experience that this flexibility can be critical because I cannot predict my future with any precision at all. Traditional retirement means that "blank space" (as I call it) at the top of my resume represents more and more of my life and makes me less and less capable of returning to the work world if circumstances require it. I may think I am still capable, but the person on the other side of the contract may feel otherwise. The longer the "blank space" period, the worse it gets. And quite frankly, it is true. No matter what it is, every skill I have needs to be kept in good running order. Every skill needs to remain up-to-date. The only way I have ever been able to be sure of that is to keep practicing the skill.

As the old saying goes, keep your hand in. Whether it's eight hours a week or twenty or whatever, find something to do that compensates you and do it. It will keep you growing professionally, will provide at least a little extra income and the flexibility that come from that, and if you keep it up, you will get better at it. Should the long-term plan collapse, you have something to turn to immediately. You have no "blank space".

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